While the size of the illicit firearm market cannot be definitively measured, based on available data, the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC) conservatively estimates there are 260,000 firearms (250,000 long-arms and 10,000 handguns) in the domestic illicit market. This estimate is based on a range of intelligence sources, including historical and updated firearm importation figures and seizure trends since the 2013 release of this estimation.
The ACIC has not observed a significant change in the market since the 2016 Illicit firearms in Australia report was released. There are a number of variables involved in reaching this assessment, and the ACIC continues to review this estimation as more definitive information becomes available.